Exclusive | From January to November 2021, China’s special vehicle market analysis

Based on the current macro environment and the overall market performance of commercial vehicles in China, the market characteristics of China’s operating vehicles from January to November 2021 are cross-analyzed from multiple dimensions, and the market performance of popular operating vehicles by function is mainly analyzed.Finally, combined with national policies and market trends, the future development direction of operational commercial vehicles is pointed out.Macroeconomic environment In November 2021, domestic industrial production margin repair, domestic demand continued pressure.From the perspective of demand, the issuance of special bonds at the investment end accelerated in November of that year, but high-quality projects were still lacking, infrastructure investment fell back again, real estate investment continued to decline, manufacturing continued to repair, investment maintained structural differentiation pattern, continued to slow growth.Foreign trade remains resilient in the short term. Under the severe situation of overseas epidemic, China still enjoys export advantages, but imports are under pressure gradually under the influence of domestic demand.On the consumer side, the rebound of CPI has supported the zero nominal value of the social network to some extent. However, online consumption on Singles’ Day is lower than in previous years, and the recovery of offline consumption has been hindered by the spread of the epidemic, and the overall recovery of consumption has slowed down.From the perspective of supply, in November of that year, the PMI50.1 of the manufacturing industry returned to above the line of expansion and contraction. The production end was the main contribution.”Ensuring supply and stabilizing price” has gradually restored coal production, alleviating the constraint of coal and electricity shortage and the pressure of rising cost.At the same time, the lack of core problem has been alleviated, industrial production as a whole marginal repair.In terms of public finance revenue and expenditure, from January to November 2021, public finance revenue grew by 12.8% year on year, with an average growth rate of 3.4% in two years, down from 4.0% in the first 10 months of 2021.Public finance expenditure was 2.9% year on year, picking up from 2.4% in the january-October period. The two-year average growth rate increased from 0.9% to 1.8%. Public finance expenditure significantly accelerated in November, narrowing the gap between revenue and expenditure.In terms of spending, public finance increased investment in infrastructure. Total spending on infrastructure-related agriculture, forestry and water conservancy affairs, transportation, energy conservation, environmental protection, and urban and rural community affairs grew at an average rate of -6.2% from -7.3% in the first ten months of this year. Due to the lack of projects and supporting funds, the proportion of public finance spending on infrastructure increased only slightly.That was just above the 0.9 per cent rise in public finances.From January to November, China’s commercial vehicle market sales volume of 3.963 million, down 4.0% year-on-year, special vehicle sales volume of 1.401 million, down 7.3% year-on-year.Among them, logistics vehicles still occupy the main market of special vehicles, accounting for 74.7%;The sales volume of the operating vehicle market was 192,000 units. After the rapid growth in the first quarter, the total sales volume from January to November decreased by 11.3% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 13.7% of the sales volume of the special-purpose vehicle market.In 2021, China’s economy will pick up and grow, the new pattern of internal circulation will be promoted, consumption expectations will be improved, infrastructure projects will be implemented at a faster pace, and the fundamentals of commercial vehicle demand will be effectively stabilized.At the same time, the continuation of the elimination of old vehicles, cars to the countryside, control over the control limit, the implementation of ⅵ standards and other policy factors accelerated the release of commercial vehicle purchase demand.Overall, the commercial vehicle market demand in 2021 continues to maintain a high level, but due to the overdraft of the commercial vehicle market in 2020 and the first half of 2021, the commercial vehicle market performance in the second half of 2021 is poor, and it is expected to decline year on year.From January to November, the operating vehicle market is still dominated by sanitation vehicles, garbage trucks and service trucks, with a total share of 61.2%, but the share of the three decreased by 9.6 percentage points compared with 2020, mainly from garbage trucks.Among the other TOP10 models, rescue vehicles, recreational vehicles and aerial vehicles saw higher year-on-year growth rates of 60.6%, 46.4% and 41.1% respectively.Garbage truck market Overview Garbage truck sales in the first November of 34,000 vehicles, down 50.3% year on year, accounting for 17.7% of the overall market share of operating vehicles, down 13.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year.In the early stage, with the promotion of garbage classification pilot and national system, the separate garbage classification and sanitation service package bidding projects increased significantly. In 2021, the garbage truck market gradually tends to saturation, the demand at the national and local levels falls, and the market sales decline significantly.It is expected that before a new round of purchase and policy incentives, the garbage truck market will continue to decline.From January to November of 2021, the sales volume of compressed garbage truck is the highest among garbage trucks, totaling 13,440 units, down 13.7% year-on-year, accounting for 39.5% of the garbage truck market.The second is the carriage removable garbage truck, the cumulative sales of 8 290, down 18.1% year on year, accounting for 24.4%;The cumulative sales volume of dump garbage trucks was 7 189, with a large year-on-year decline, down 79.9% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 21.2%;Other models accounted for 14.9% overall.In the garbage truck market, the demand for compressed garbage truck is high;At the same time, although the sales volume of sealed garbage truck is low, it has grown rapidly in recent years. From January to November 2021, the sales volume is only 492, with a year-on-year growth rate of 100.8%.As the government gradually reduces its efforts to purchase public services, the urbanization rate slows down, the garbage truck market demand decreases, the overall market holding is close to saturation, which can meet the market demand, and the sales will gradually decline.The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 directly boosted the sales volume of medical vehicles. In 2019, the annual sales volume of medical vehicles was only 8 454 units, and in 2020, the annual sales volume increased by 105.3% to 17 353 units.From January to November, medical vehicles continued to grow, the sales volume of 16,000 units, an increase of 7.5% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 8.6% of the operating vehicle market sales volume, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.Since entering the new normal of the epidemic, the sales growth of medical vehicles in China has slowed down. Under the condition of maintaining the status quo, the medical vehicle market will basically meet the market demand in 2022.Sales of medical vehicles increased with the local epidemic situation. In 2021, regions with local epidemic situation, such as Hebei, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang, saw a high growth rate. In Hubei, due to the surge of medical vehicles in 2020, sales base was high and the trend of decline was obvious.In terms of vehicle types, medical vehicles are mainly composed of light vehicles, accounting for 94.9% of the total share of medical vehicles, among which light passengers account for 87.8%, and the share of light trucks grows rapidly, increasing by 1.6 percentage points.The sales volume of light bus modified medical vehicles was 14,000, up 3.9% year on year, accounting for 87.8% of the overall medical vehicle market, down 3.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year.Sales of light trucks converted to medical vehicles were lower at 1,173 units, but the year-on-year growth rate was higher, up 37.7 per cent from the same period last year, mainly due to the increased demand for medical waste transfer vehicles.In terms of the specific functions of medical vehicles, ambulance occupies the first place, and medical vehicles, medical waste transfer vehicles and vaccine cold chain vehicles rank second to fourth respectively.In 2021, the sales volume of ambulances was 13,000, down 2.6% year on year, occupying the main position of the whole medical vehicle, accounting for 79.0%, compared with the same period last year, the share declined greatly, mainly caused by the extrusion of medical vehicles and vaccine cold chain vehicles.The growth rates of the three models from the second to the fourth place are far higher than the growth level of medical vehicles. Among them, vaccine cold chain vehicles increased from 112 vehicles in the same period of 2020 to 650 vehicles, with a growth rate of 480.4%, and their share increased by 3.2 percentage points.See the table below.Sales volume from January to November of 2021, year-on-year growth rate of vehicles, % market share change,% Ambulance 13057-2.6-8.1 Medical vehicle 1 67358.13.2 Medical waste transfer vehicle 1 08443.01.6 Vaccine cold chain vehicle 650480.43.2 Other 4027.50.0 Total 16 5057.5 — As at 30 November,China has received 25,079,375 doses of novel coronavirus vaccines in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The COVID-19 pandemic has directly driven the development of the vaccine cold chain truck.At the same time, the promotion of China’s policies also catalyzed the upgrading of R&D and the rapid development of the market: at the end of 2019, the Vaccine Management Law of the People’s Republic of China was officially implemented;In July 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the National Health Commission and the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine jointly issued the Notice on Allocating the 2020 Budget of Subsidies for the Construction of the Public Health System and the Construction of the Major Epidemic Prevention and Control And Treatment System, requiring more investment in terminal cold chain equipment nationwide.Vaccine cold chain network construction is a process of long-term, high investment, conform to the standards of the vaccine cold chain car cost is high, at the same time, form a complete set of monitoring system of temperature control system, transportation and warehouse management also requires a lot of financial support, under the policy of overweight, irritation of the terminal equipment demand in the short term, there will be a sales boom.At present, the fuel type of operating vehicle is still dominated by traditional energy, which accounts for 98.4% from January to November.At the same time, based on the overall development of new energy, comprehensive consideration of new energy vehicles industry development planning, market trends and factors such as the smooth transition, to maintain the good momentum of development, new energy vehicles industry of new energy subsidies gradually TuiPo, policy turning to replace subsidies with awards, operation and the use of subsidies, etc., due to the current commercial models of new energy cost is higher, the cost is difficult to cut,New energy operation vehicle sales growth power is insufficient.From January to November of 2021, only 3,133 new energy models were sold, down 5.1% compared with 3,300 in November of 2020, and the market share was 1.6%, down 0.1 percentage points compared with last year.Pure electric is still the main technology route of new energy models, accounting for 98.9%, up 0.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year.Pure electric models are mainly garbage trucks and sanitation vehicles. With the gradual deepening of the city’s blue sky defense and the objective factors of the implementation of the “double carbon” goal, new energy sanitation vehicles and garbage trucks are becoming the priority replacement object of government departments.From January to November of 2021, among the main pure electric models — garbage trucks and sanitation trucks, yutong heavy industry and zoomlion have outstanding performance, followed by Beijing hualant, fujian longma and chery automobile. The overall TOP5 enterprises account for 66.4%, an increase of 13.7 percentage points compared with last year, and the market concentration is further improved.The ranking of the TOP5 enterprises changes greatly: yutong reworks and faili new energy operation vehicle market, ranking increased by 1 place, occupying 31.6% of the market share, a rapid increase of 16.3 percentage points;Zoomlion’s market share dropped to the second place, down 3.9 percentage points to 17.1% market share by November 2021.Chery Automobile rose 17 places to enter the top five due to high growth.See the table below.Sales volume from January to November 2021, year-on-year growth rate of vehicles, % market share change,Yutong Heavy Industry 91193.016.3 Zoomlion 492-24.1-3.9 Beijing Hualin 204-2.90.3 Fujian Longma 171-38.7-3.1 Chery Automobile 138-666.74.2 Other 968-33.7-13.7 total 2From the perspective of the national operating vehicle market, Hubei Chengli, Zoomlion and Beiqi Foton occupy the top three in the market, followed by Dongfeng Motor, Fujian Longma and Sinotruk. The top six enterprises occupy 32.7% of the market share, down 2.5 percentage points compared with last year. Due to the large number of operating vehicle models,Competitive enterprises are more, the market is more scattered, low concentration.Among them, Hubei Chengli with sanitation car sales advantage occupies the first place in the market, the overall operating vehicle sales of 22,000 units, down 13.9% year on year, market share of 11.6%, down 0.3 percentage points compared with last year;Dongfeng Motor sold 8,000 units, up 17% year on year, and its market share increased from 3.1% to 4.1%. It was the only enterprise with positive growth among the top six enterprises. The main growth came from service vehicles, which increased 46.6% year on year.Sales volume, year-on-year growth rate, % market share change from January to November, 2021% Hubei Chengli 22 343-13.9-0.3 Zoomlion 13 688-11.90.0 Beiqi Foton 8 789-26.6-0.9 Dongfeng Automobile 7 80717.01.0 Fujian Longma 5 121-4.70.2 Sinotruk 5 035-53.2-2.3 Others 129Special operation vehicles mainly serve public aspects such as municipal cleaning, emergency rescue and disaster relief, medical and health care, etc. The main demand comes from the government’s change of new energy for public sector vehicles. Meanwhile,A small increase in the proportion of mechanized operations and urbanization also provides growth support for the operating vehicle market.From the planning of each vehicle enterprise, operation vehicles are the focus of special vehicle models.How to reduce the unit price of new energy models in the wave of new energy marketization, improve the intelligent work efficiency of operational vehicles and maintain higher expected value of users are the problems that need to be answered in the future development of operational vehicle market.Author and company: Yang Zidu/China Automobile Technology Research Center Co., LTD.

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